Italy's horse of a different color

  WHENCE ITALY? “May you live in Interesting times” is an ancient curse which seems tailor made for 2020, but if this year could pick where to establish its main home address, look no further than my country. Of course, we had an early start. Where we come from Italy had a shock general election in 2018, where the “Movimento 5 Stelle” ( M5S) exploded on the national stage, winning about a third of the national vote, and becoming the sensation of the decade. While the centre right coalition, formed by Lega (Salvini), Forza Italia (i.e., Berlusconi) Fratelli d'Italia (Meloni), and some others, won a majority with 37% of the vote. By the way, do not bother trying to understand Italy's electoral system: suffice to say that in the recent past two electoral system were introduced but never used, one was, and currently there is for any practical purposes none. After some consultations by President Mattarella, largely inconclusive since there were no clear chances of forming...

 https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-biden-economy-means-litter-jobs-11603658932?st=v7ewonz9o1mqvlb

  ESM Incoming! DISCLAIMER: nothing in here represents advice of any kind, blah blah blah, all those fancy acronyms who protect the powerful have been looked at. Italy has been enduring for months now a political debate about accepting the ESM money, about 37 Bn. EUR earmarked for COVID related expenses. Of course, given that to my shock and horror I have witnessed proof that babies are not brought by storks, to me “earmarked” is the usual political fig leaf that means nothing, but that's not the main trust of my thoughts here. The debate has been thrilling, but boiled down it amounted to one partner in the coalition, PD, saying “We have to ask for the ESM money!”, and the other, M5S, saying “no”. Fascinating, given that Italy is betting the farm (its citizens', that is) on getting money from the Recovery Fund in size and in time to spend... on whatever floats its boat. Of course, as every politician and monetary economist has conveniently forgotten, money doesn't ...

  OUR DARKEST HOUR Why the COVID scare is a pale cardboard cut-out of the coming moment of truth for governments and the economies. I understand. It's an immediate peril over which individuals have no control. These kind of crisis are the REAL “suspension of disbelief”, since the value of cooperation, however imperfect, is now much higher than “freedom”. That's where all the extraordinary measures limiting people come from. However, we should not forget a number of problems, some about the past, and some about the future. In reality, the problems of the past are two: One, we had SARS in 2003 1 ; Yet, no one so far has done an After Action Report on the inadequacy of the plans about pandemic defence, plans for which all countries set up between 2004 and 2007 2 . Just to put my two cents in: When lock-down was enacted, the general population had no clues about how to act in a lock-down, what kind of medical and non medical supplies one should stock at home, what...

  Why I don't bother with the Recovery Fund    Italians, of all people, should know that “Moar debt” is not either “problem solving” or growth. Especially since they had Wolfgang Schauble tell them that a looong while back.   Also published in Macrodesiac.com, https://www.macrodesiac.com/why-i-dont-bother-about-the-recovery-fund/ In Italy, I am being served daily with an helping of “we must not squander the opportunity of the Recovery Fund!”, usually accompanied by a side dish of “We must remain united!”. And I am already sick of it. True, both Europe and Italy need a growth jolt to recover from the COVID induced crisis. But I am thoroughly convinced that even the DECLARED objectives of the Italian plans won't help, and moreover, I also find EU's preparatory work underwhelming 1 . But first, a small “sources and method” notes: when I refer to a document, or speech or other public material I will whenever possible link the source; I think...