MY (small) GARZARELLI MOMENT

 

MY (small) GARZARELLI MOMENT(1)

Yes, yes. Pride goeth before the fall, and I am quite sure that after having predicted, far in advance of other pundits, that Sergio Mattarella would succeedhimself as President of the Republic, I am due for a slew of incorrect predictions.

But that's an easy prediction, on two counts or more. First, I am mainly involved as a professional in financial markets, where anything resembling 50% correct predictions is a GOOD result (money is made in how you trade around that, not in trying to bring that to 60%). But more importantly.... my predictions are ALWAYS wrong.

Before anyone objects, I DO have opinions, which is the conventional way to say “a frame of reference of reality orienting choices in all aspects of daily life”. The point is, in my experience reality is too complex to be comprised in a number of “correct opinions”. Also, convictions are emotional investments which risk anchoring a person too firmly for too long, which can rapidly turn them into liabilities.

So I approach reality like a man might approach a statue: there are always sides that are obscured by what I see in that particular moment, hence my view is always “Wrong”. This time, for some obscure astral alignment, most of the alternatives I saw ended up predicting a Mattarella win. But to me, it's the process that counts, more than the end result. I have very smart friends who were convinced of other outcomes and that doesn't diminishes them in my eye one bit. My hope is that the same might happen in reverse in the future.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

THE END OF MELONI?

August 9th, 2023   THE END OF MELONI? DISCLAIMER: nothing in this article is or is meant to be "financial advice" under current legislation. drink fluids, eat healthy and exercise. I had some doubts about how the new government of Italy would develop, see my previous post on the subject . But here we are, not one year into the current government, and it all falls apart in one day. First an explanation: by “fall apart” I do not mean that the government falls, loses parliamentary votes, suffers internal defections etc. If anything, the one speculative thoughts I had, that Meloni would last the legislature, is the less dented of my opinions, expectations and desires. In fact, I surmise that between declaring the experience ended and proclaiming a snap election, or the present predicament, the first was the better alternative... provided she had an inkling about what happened. What I mean is that what made Meloni "something else" is lost, and probably irretrie
Read more

Juggling priceless eggs in variable gravity

Image
  Turin, October 15 th , 2023 Juggling priceless eggs in variable gravity We have no political leaders, only intermediaries. Hence these dismiss any position in which their “employer” ends up with an advantage as unpalatable. And if you play to draw or lose but not win, end results are less than optimal for western countries and cultures.The title is a quote from “ The mote in God's eye ”, a book that I highly recommend reading. The conflict between Israel and Hamas has brought anguish and turmoil everywhere. I have been following it up close because on top of listing geopolitics and military conflict as things I am most interested in, I have friends in Israel, and I am a friend of Israel, before someone asks or implies. But that's not the main focus of a thought that dawned on me this morning. My assessment of what has happened or might happened in the theater of operation is mine to share, and I share that....sparingly. But what caught my attention, also because it dire
Read more

Milei: The only real news of the year

  Milei: The only real news of the year The year 2023 has been far from uneventful and there are scores of very good “year in review” posts. But for an Italian like me, and for the world in general, nothing in my opinion comes close to the free election of Milei in Argentina. Argentina has been a sick man of South America for longer than I have been alive. But that was not always the case, and while present day society, with its weak familial relationships and indifference of history can ignore it, It was indeed a wealthy and thriving society in the latter part of the 1800 and early 1900. For me, that's part of the family lore since of the five brothers one of which was my paternal grandfather, three emigrated to Argentina in the early part of the past century. I probably have more relations there than here in Italy. That was partly due to a federalist constitution and a series of market friendly governments which allowed the country to make the most of its advantages
Read more