Premier Meloni: a Spring, or a milder Winter?

Meloni: a Spring or a milder Winter?

Whilst her first public appearance as Premier signals a change,  her words indicate that this might not actually be THE change.

 

 First, an apology: whilst this represents what my VERY initial assessment of what "Premier Meloni has said so far"... a part of the actual analysis is deliberately missing. The reasons are obvious to those seeing the gaps: after all I live here, in a legendarily dysfunctional country, and my recent years have been an object lesson in not trusting strangers as much as I ordinarily would have done previously. Also, this is also part of my edge in my day job, and some things are free but some you pay for, sorry. But I stand by all the words I am typing in order to put on screen what I found comforting in the first steps of this new government, what I think you should expect going forward, and what I would have hoped to see but I haven't so far or think I won't ever see.

The road to power

Giorgia Meloni has been a quite effective campaigner, but her victory hinges on two events and two people who made her eventual victory possible: Ironically, neither is in her party.

The election happened in a strange season because, along the way, former Premier Mario Draghi called it quits prematurely. Pundits may whine and ruminate all they want, but the fact remains that when he went to the Quirinale to resign, Mario Draghi had WON his 56^th consecutive confidence vote. Yes, it was not a vote from his entire supermajority, which for those who don't follow Italy included ALL parties except Meloni's, but hey, our history is dotted with governments bumping into similar close calls and barely raising an eyebrow in the process.

Instead, Draghi elected to resign. One possible explanation among many is that this was due to being shunned by the President of the Republic during the election to his post. Draghi allegedly wanted the Quirinale, but for only the second time, Mattarella succeeded himself, and that might have induced some frictions.

Draghi's fall caused an early election under the electoral law used in the last parliamentary election, which happened BEFORE the previous parliament, under the pressure of a public resentment which sent Movimento Cinque Stelle to get a very large share of votes, cut the number of representatives to 200 elected Senators and 400 House members.

It was under tentative feelers that this electoral law would have been changed in order to be more “proportional” before 2023 elections, but the crisis made that impossible. The “right” coalesced and presented lists that were able to thrive in the “first past the post” seats, while the left, ridden with internal dissent and with a resurgent M5S under Conte, was not (and IS not) able to present united candidates. Meanwhile, Meloni garnered more and more votes in the polls, while Lega, the “problem child” of the right, lost them. Capitalizing on her lone opposition role Meloni ended up getting large numbers of votes even in the Northeast, the traditional Lega stronghold.

The Lady's not for turning

There is indeed, for those of my age who lived that era as adults or thereabouts, a strong whiff of the late Lady Thatcher about Meloni. The “low born” background, her traditional ethics, her directness of speech shorn of the timidity, bluster or willingness to please that previous right wing politicians had and have still.

Her first speech to parliament is a case in point. So let's see where a lay Italian like me could see a difference, irrespective of his or her political leanings. Because the Lady has some steel in her, for example:

“[..]With the regret about the great many [voters] who have renounced exercising their [voting] right written in the Constitution, citizens who consider ever more futile their vote, because they say “ In any case someone else will decide, the decision will be taken in the Palace or in exclusive circles”. Alas that has happened often in the past 11 years, with a flurry of governing majorities fully legitimized in the Constitution, but dramatically distant from voters' indications”¹.

Now, given that she just had thanked President Mattarella, such a strong indictment of previous policies takes a measure of personal moral courage that is almost nonexistent in Italy (A famed Italian once joked that the national motto should be “Tengo famiglia”, I have a family), and even rarer when talking TO power. True, she was talking FROM power TO power, yet to name one Berlusconi, even at his Zenith, never found it in himself to say such “A plague on both your houses”.

One also has to commend her ability at “spending review”, since on top of being a warning shot across the bow of the Quirinale, it also reminds the most talked about of his weakish road companions, Salvini, that no one is fooled about who enabled two left(ish) governments in a row during the past legislature, Conte 1 and Conte 2. My hunch is that during the negotiation to form the actual government Meloni might have made abundantly clear that, of ALL the parties, left and right, only ONE could say “fold”, send the country to a SECOND early election, and wipe the floor clean with “friends” and foes alike, and it was her party. After all, as she said, “[...] within the coalition, [voters] rewarded more some proposals over others”².

OR, the rest of the bunch could have tried to patch up the same government which ended when Draghi left, and face their “winter of discontent”, and find themselves in even hotter water come April or June. Some of the previous ministers would have been in VERY hot waters, because while now some will be put under severe scrutiny, like former Health minister Speranza, some will “cooperate”, like Cingolani, the “energy “ minister, and some inexplicably have been given a “get out of jail free” card. A continuation of the previous government would have exposed all of them to a kind of intensive scrutiny that would either have compromised them, or the scrutinizing institutions, and Italian scrutinizing institutions have lost a good junk of public faith as it is.

Premier Meloni also dealt effectively with #EU institutions, by saying “ Why, Colleagues, How could it be possible that an integration born in the fifties as a European Coal and Steel Community within 70 years finds itself, after having enlarged enormously its purview, being massively exposed about energy and raw material exposure?³”

And now for something completely different

But, Meloni has her shades of gray, partly due to all that comes with being an ITALIAN Italian: Europeans in general by design have a very weak knowledge of the economy, and what's left has been severely damaged by the Quantitative Easing acid bath, but Italians are something else on top; and she's Italian indeed and a politician at that: for example, she peddled the “lower gas prices have been partly caused by introduction/talks about a price cap”. And here is where the veil drops and I see what is the cause of my disquiet about her. Mild, mind you: It was exceedingly easy to come across as a better warden of the country than her three predecessors, but it was just as easy if not more to be much of a muchness, the line of least resistance both on a domestic and an international level.

Yet, in her heart she thinks both that the “state” always provides solutions instead of being part of the problem if not indeed THE problem, and she doesn't have a firm grasp of what the economic system is and what the bigger part of the state role is (more on that in a moment).

For example, she kept railing about “speculation” as an enemy. Now, all governments since time immemorial have had that in their sight... yet “speculation” survives since it's like vultures, or mice. They serve an indispensable role in the ecosystem, at some gut check level even politicians, the most tone deaf group of people you can find, realize it, yet all in their dreams want to be the next Mao having peasants kill all the birds.

That's Item one, and it indeed makes me think that it's entirely premature for optimists to crow something is changed. But alas, there are others. For one, like all before her, she makes the common but incorrect assumption that people invest in countries, by saying, “we've been asked how we intend to calm investors facing a debt of 145% of GDP, second in Europe only to Greece”.

The trouble is, and do not take my harshness the wrong way, that savers do NOT invest in “countries”, and they care even less about what the levels of public debt are insofar that this is not material to “doing things”. If what she said was true, Some weird rich bozo would have taken over Weddell Island, put up an ESG-compliant LED sign visible from space saying “WE'RE DEBT FREE – INVESTORS, COME HERE !!” (or “flock here”, since the economy is basically sheep based. Haha.) , and started building the new Taiwan or South Korea. And as far as countries go, even within the high debt countries, Greece, who underwent a painful and chaotic restructuring that did some unrepairable structural damage to capital markets at the tender hands of then ECB looks a better place to set up than Italy seen from abroad for some activities.

While her pledge to make Italy an attractive investment destination is “good”, it's not as good as some words she said I believe in her response to the question time (you didn't expect me to provide ALL the linked materials, did you?). At some point she rightly said that “European resources”, the Cornucopia which magically spouts free money according to most if not all previous Italian and EU governments and politicians, is indeed not only financed by taxing and/or indebting EU taxpayers, BUT a significant portion of it is financed by ITALIAN taxpayer according to the share of the EU budget. If the Lady is not careful she might raise a scandal by telling next that water is wet. But water is INDEED wet, and it's refreshing that at long last I have a premier who knows that.

She then went on to her institutional reform project. She wants to put to parliament a system which would ensure more stable governments and executive by going to a semi presidential system. This will ruffle a lot of feathers, just as it had already done during the campaign (remember the “scare” about the center right government getting two thirds of the seats, there by being able to DIRECTLY vote constitutional changes without a popular vote confirmation). Yet, again, while those are long overdue, there is a bigger concern she hasn't touched upon directly, on the contrary her statements would seem to confirm that the mortal sin of Italy is staying for perpetuity.

I intend to break the wheel

One of the point men that both militate in her government and gave luster to her campaign is her Justice minister, Carlo Nordio. A former prosecutor, he is not only widely respected but he spent his reputation in favor of the referenda on Justice which were put in front of the Constitutional Court for eventual approval or rejection. He succeeds Marta Cartabia.

The troubles of Italian Justice system are varied and deep, and there are some which have been locally patched up without changing materially the framework (i.e., the absurd length of process relative to other countries), but there are a couple which trouble me. One is worrying, the other is EXCEEDINGLY worrying, and neither has been aired so far.

The worrying one is the implied supremacy of the state actor when he is part of any judgement. You want to have a lay Italian laugh himself to death, try “Justice is impartial” first, you'll get 80% of them, and 100% of those who own or manage a business. And don't start a discussion on fiscal matters.

But the second is the one where I indeed hoped to hear a word, and none came, especially because in my view is vital to the future of my country. And remember, though a number of personal circumstances, I am stuck here for good, so I have to care even if I desperately would like not to.

This second one is that the body of law has enshrined RETROACTIVE consequences of the body of law on citizens' lives and fortunes. That risks making anything good Meloni might accomplish exceedingly futile, since any successor could change what the PRESENT looks like merely by signing a decree within ten years of today. So, sorry folks, no new enterprise formation. Six months ago, but I had reasons to be very low in spirit, I yelled to my business partner “Had I knows we'd end up in this legal environment the <REDACTED> I would have been drawn into starting a company!”. The lowness has gone, but the legal environment if anything has worsened. And by railing against “speculators”, Meloni right out of the gate has implied that SUCCESSFUL speculation is a mortal sin, but losses are your problem. Not an auspicious start, if you want people to put their heart and money into projects which risk taking years to come to fruition.

So, barring some (repeated, I have been burned before) signals that the State acts honorably, only two kind of actors will or would invest in her dream Italy on a rational level:

1. Government actors, able both to be outside the Italian legal system and/or to pressure it into complying with original written contracts (As China does to Scholz now);

2. Same, but with locals acting as Go betweens. A kind of “Inverse Riva”, from the family who put a lot of money and effort into ILVA in Taranto only to be persecuted both fiscally and in court;

3. The Italian government itself, obviously, claiming a “market failure”, one of the totems of the whole Italian political spectrum.

Barring significant changes in the legal framework, yes, Meloni is different, but not as different as my poor country would in my opinion need. “More like than unlike”, said the Bard.

Of course, I hope for the best, and she is indeed more talented than she let on. But for now, I'll simply enjoy the balmy Winter. Spring ain't there yet.

1“[..]con il rammarico, però, per i moltissimi che hanno rinunciato all’esercizio di questo dovere civico, sancito nella Costituzione, cittadini che reputano sempre più spesso inutile il loro voto, perché dicono: “Tanto poi decide qualcun altro, tanto poi si decide nei palazzi o nei circoli esclusivi”. Purtroppo spesso è stato così negli ultimi 11 anni, con un susseguirsi di maggioranze di Governo pienamente legittime sul piano costituzionale, ma drammaticamente distanti dalle indicazioni degli elettori. “

2“all’interno della coalizione, hanno premiato maggiormente determinate proposte rispetto ad altre. “

3“Perché, colleghi, come è stato possibile che un’integrazione che nasceva nel 1950, 70 anni orsono, come Comunità economica del carbone e dell’acciaio, a 70 anni di distanza si ritrovi, dopo aver allargato a dismisura le sue sfere di competenza, a essere maggiormente esposta proprio in tema di approvvigionamento energetico e di materie prime?”