EUROPE, A CONTINENT WITH NO FRIENDS
A continent with no friends
Transatlantic relations haven't been easy in the past ten years, but 2025 takes the cake so far;
European countries and the EU (overlapping but not identical concepts) have been caught napping by Trump's reelection;
Trump 2 is apparently similar to Trump 1, but he's not, yet for all the well known vicissitudes that intervened (two life attempts, raid on Mar e Lago, dawn raids to arrest staff in front of media alerted to the purpose) the appearance is that Europe is not changing its ways in any appreciable sense if not scale;
The Munich meeting and the speech by Vice President Vance remain for me a seminal point in two ways, because they dictated the terms of the transatlantic dialogue from the US point of view and because the initial European response was total dismissal of the point;
Bear in minds that one of the chasms is that the current US administration was JOINTLY targeted by Main stream media and elites ACROSS the Atlantic, while the current EU governments, of ANY ilk, treat it as customary that the press is between favorable and wildly enthusiastic, with the notable exception of Meloni in Italy, not enough;
As anybody with some sense will surmise, this is unlikely to end well.
Europe and the United States have been seeing themselves as part of a common culture at least since the start of the last century, when during WW I for the first time the US was perceived here as a force to be reckoned with. This coincided with the decline of the British Empire and Commonwealth, hence it's fitting for me to misquote a phrase, meant for the UK and the US only, which is quite applicable to Europe and the US as a whole:
"England and America are two countries separated by a common language"
The phrase, variously attributed to George Bernard Shaw, Winston Churchill or even Oscar Wilde, has never been more apt to describe the strained state of the relation between the US, the pinnacle of Western Civilization, and Europe, its cradle. Even basic concepts that underlie the common values are now of questionable help in understanding how different the two systems are.
When JD Vance, the US Vice President, made his remarks at the Munich Security Conference (Video here; full transcript and reactions by EU leaders here), his weren't idle words: The new administration had just come in, and he IS the new VP to a man that was nearly killed in an attempt on his life and has endured a second much less threatening miss. This is no Dan Quayle, he IS the man picked to take up the torch “in case”.
Also, as subsequently transpired for example when Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky had that quite open fallout with Vance in front of the cameras, there is a “Good Cop/ Bad Cop” routine here, and by God it's wise to listen to what his rendition of “bad cop” says especially if you want to negotiate with the US instead of either surrendering or antagonize it.
Yet, the divergent paths now go way back, to the end of the cold war: Europe, a continent whose nations saw themselves as little more than tripwires on the border between the then USSR and the US if not as potential neutrals/ bridges (Yes, France, you DID kick out NATO), immediately cut spending on their military and turned that windfall into social causes. It's in a way a cruel and ironic twist of history that the then predominant continental European power, Germany, started declining when the role of border country was inherited by former COMECON countries farther East, and which are now quite a social and in part economic “ghost of Christmas Past” by Dickens: Poland, economically, socially and above all militarily, has many of the marks of what West Germany was when I started working in 1988: strong citizenship values, a strong Army, and an ability to punch above its own weight when provoked. We are no longer a society with a settled aristocracy, so titles seem kind of hazy to modern men and women, but it's apt to remember that many of the titles of nobility derive from military responsibility over border areas, think “Marquis”. The attendant values of honor, courage and nobility in the sense of good behavior all come from the simple fact that recruiting people as soldiers is exceedingly easy (think “money”), having them fight for you …. not as much. Having a threatening enemy close by might be a good social disinfectant at times.
So, Post-USSR Europe has become a place where “social innovation” and social engineering have become a major generational trend. But objective realities of humanity itself haven't changed, and a political authority without moral authority as its base has unwanted consequences.
One consequence came to my mind while I was listening to Netanyahu's speech to the United Nations, and seeing that four European countries left the room before he started speaking. At that point, irrespective of what anyone's take on the conflict is, one realization dawned on me:
Europe doesn't have friends, and the perception of the elites is that there is no need to have friends. Treaties and international venues suffice.
Alas, that perception is materially wrong, if only because it contains its own contradiction: at this point in time it's safe to say that if the UN disbanded of its own volition, the current US administration would probably refrain from declaring a week of national mourning with flags at half masts. So, a reasonable person would think that a continent who is self consciously invoking “international norms” would try to abide by one, and either reprimand the countries leaving the hall or at least write a note, to avoid troubles down the line. Yet it looks that at least in Europe “Realpolitik” vacated the continent for good.
But having no friends is not a disaster per se. The trouble is NEEDING any at times. And while Europe more or less loudly invokes “international norms”, it's characteristically shy of abiding by them when it doesn't suit them, something that as an Italian I can relate to since it's at least fifty years since Italy's governments felt compelled to follow their own rules when they didn't like them, or it cost them revenue. So, on a grander scale, the EU has ran up an internal and external security deficit big enough to make their forefathers pass out in shock. To add insult to injury, there was a feedback loop of “claims less need to spend on defense – loss of capabilities – loss of the necessary expert personnel able to devise how to deploy and use equipment – loss of military advisors to political leaders – selection if geopolitically inept leaders – the latter pick even more inept military advisors - rinse - lather - repeat”.
Von Der Leyen, the current and previous European Commission president, was Germany's defense minister, and even a cursory look at her track record there would force any half baked infantryman to wonder if Merkel, who picked her, was indeed a KGB plant. And the rest are surely not a blend of Von Meinstein and Nimitz: Europe just met in Copenhagen, and the key word coming out of that meeting was "Drone wall", a concept so at odds with the lessons of what has been happening in the Ukraine theater that I was immediately disheartened.
Add to that the purring noises about China coming from the “now under new management” Vatican, the Alps-size blooper Minister Crosetto did by sending TWO Frigates to escort the Gaza Blockade busting flotilla, and we're in deep trouble. And remember, my navally savvy son reminded me that Italian contribution to EUNAVFOR NEVER was more than one hull. Because make no mistake: there are in the whole world TWO countries which have been subjected to years of hybrid/rocket/drones attack, one which is barely coping and one which has been more successful, even if not 100%. The two countries are Ukraine and Israel. Guess which is which.
This by the way throws a different light on who is actually aiding and abetting Russia and who is not, which is unfortunate in a continent that at a managerial level has completely lost the difference between intentions and actions: there is no need to imply bad faith to see that the benign indifference towards the Gaza supporters won't do Europe (and poor Ukraine) any good, since politically the EU can't simply go to Tel Aviv and ask for the technical package of Iron Dome. The fact that it's now exceedingly unlikely that EU representatives would be received is another matter.
There are tough other countries Europe managed to displease: moderate Muslim countries in the Middle East and elsewhere. It's quite telling that after Hamas, tough basically rejecting the Trump plan for peace in Gaza, no longer refused to contemplate releasing all hostages and bodies, Trump released a statement thanking the countries that supported the peace plan. No explicit reference was made to any European country or organization.
In turn, in the runup TO the plan, Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a scathing statement condemning France for having caused Hamas to continue fighting by pressing for recognition of a two state solution.
So, Europe now finds itself with a moderate Muslim world which would gladly see Gaza tribes which adhered to Hamas go elsewhere but not in their countries, after having allowed domestic antisemitic sentiment run out of control (I don't foresee any EU politician don a Kippah in public, for example), an Israel which would gladly accept the intake of European Jews (for one given why they'd make Aliyah they'd probably support the present coalition), and a tendency never to backtrack on political position even when they were untenable on reality points in the first place. See where this is going?
Add to the recipe that there are significant elections here and there, and 2026 looks initially like an excellent vintage year if you think chaos is good. And as the basis of that there is....something which was a European only specialty which crossed the sea and seated itself in the US Democratic party and in the left generally: elites think the People are too stupid to decide for themselves, at least outside the boundaries Elites themselves HAVE to impose, for "the common good", see Thierry Breton and others.
Thoroughly enjoyable read. Much to refect upon.
ReplyDeleteThank you
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