MY (small) GARZARELLI MOMENT

 

MY (small) GARZARELLI MOMENT(1)

Yes, yes. Pride goeth before the fall, and I am quite sure that after having predicted, far in advance of other pundits, that Sergio Mattarella would succeedhimself as President of the Republic, I am due for a slew of incorrect predictions.

But that's an easy prediction, on two counts or more. First, I am mainly involved as a professional in financial markets, where anything resembling 50% correct predictions is a GOOD result (money is made in how you trade around that, not in trying to bring that to 60%). But more importantly.... my predictions are ALWAYS wrong.

Before anyone objects, I DO have opinions, which is the conventional way to say “a frame of reference of reality orienting choices in all aspects of daily life”. The point is, in my experience reality is too complex to be comprised in a number of “correct opinions”. Also, convictions are emotional investments which risk anchoring a person too firmly for too long, which can rapidly turn them into liabilities.

So I approach reality like a man might approach a statue: there are always sides that are obscured by what I see in that particular moment, hence my view is always “Wrong”. This time, for some obscure astral alignment, most of the alternatives I saw ended up predicting a Mattarella win. But to me, it's the process that counts, more than the end result. I have very smart friends who were convinced of other outcomes and that doesn't diminishes them in my eye one bit. My hope is that the same might happen in reverse in the future.

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