THE ADOO LOOP: HOW DECISIONS ARE MADE

 

THE ADOO LOOP: HOW DECISIONS ARE MADE

No, “ADOO” is not something out of a fifties song: it is in fact the reverse of an acronym well known in certain circles, especially Military circles. It is in fact “Observation – Orientation – Decision – Action”, and “Loop” stands to mean that this is an iterative process, meant not only to force on its adherents a precise attention on reality as it flows instead of how we want it to be, but to be very reactive to events, even and above all of one's own making. The concept that there are domains in which today that is working in reverse is something I stumbled upon on Twitter, I am simply running with it. Mistakes and opinions are my own etc. but credit must go where it is due.

So what's OODA Loop? It was a military concept of command and control, too intricate in spite of its apparent simplicity to be explained at length here, but that in a nutshell postulated that pushing decision as low in the ranks as possible allowed a quicker decision cycle, and that this, coupled with the feedbacks inherent in the system between “action” and “Observation” especially, allowed commanders to be much more effective. In the words of a commander quoted in John Boyd's Biography, “it's as if I commanded BOTH armies in the field”.

Yet, there's an eerie vibe of truth in “reverse OODA loop” as applied in the current policy domain. The two fields I am most familiar with are Finance, my line of job, and energy policy. The two are closely intertwined since in their pursuit of goals irrespective of means, the powers that be are using both in a coordinated persuasion of citizens.

One of the most recent examples has been the European Ban in internal combustion engines. The fact that this ban from 2035 regards “Passenger cars and vans (light commercial vehicles) [which] produce about 15% of the EU’s total CO2 emissions” evidently overrides, in the eyes of people paid out of taxation, any consideration about economic viability. And guess what? In a normal system, it should not.

In fact, under a functioning market mechanism, disruptions should be sufficient to force reality upon political wet dreams. Deficits go up, interest rates required of governments and auto producers rise, equities fall, rumors of heavy layoffs abound, and eventually the political class buckles. But since the introduction of QE that hasn't been the case any more.... since the essential component of “skin in the game”, finding the fall guy, has vanished. QE first and Inflation now are acting as a kitchen mixer where every citizen pays his share of a number of mistakes which weren't adequately explained, and that are hidden claiming a “good cause” clause. Practically, De Tocqueville's prophecy has become fully effective: “Democracy extends the sphere of individual freedom, socialism restricts it. Democracy attaches all possible value to each man; socialism makes each man a mere agent, a mere number. Democracy and socialism have nothing in common but one word: equality. But notice the difference: while democracy seeks equality in liberty, socialism seeks equality in restraint and servitude.”

While democracy should work to multiply opportunities for the people, we are in a stage where instead once the elites have set a goal, they proceed to eliminate all alternatives through legal limits they themselves impose, and mandates which In many cases look more and more like a PG rated version of 1984 by George Orwell: Eurasia can't be bothered to learn what an individual is particularly afraid of in order to torture him personally, it's not needed. Tweak a law here, avoid a level playing field there, force individuals to ask each other nudgy questions, and you reach your goal. And boy, have they become good at that. Now wonder the only book I wish was never written is “nudge”.

Think again about the EU mandate on internal combustion engines, and especially the date: 2035 seems distant enough to a layman, or a finance guy like me who has grown up in a world where lags are about consequences of actions that happen instantaneously and everywhere at once, like official rate decisions. Yet, look back and think about how much money effort and TIME it takes to design, test, and build a new engine in quantity. Also, that engine must pass “regulations” about safety, environmental impact etc., a moving target at the best of times and worse now. Now do this simple exercise: find someone who went public supporting the issue and ask: “Do you support ceasing all research and investment into common piston engine from end of day today?”

Because this is as likely an outcome as the lofty “fit for 55” goals, and was NOT discussed to the best of my knowledge. “It's too late now”, as the ever present Sir Humprey says.

So, to check outcomes vs intentions, I have and will continue to apply this “ADOO filter”: when goals involve means instead of outcomes, (deny ICE cars <> reduce global pollution or climate risk>), when the timelines are long enough to ensure that who actually PROPOSED a measure won't be the fall guy if it bombs, when there is no clear “What do we do if it's wrong?” procedure, and above all financial estimates are dodgy, either in assumptions or in methods, it's probably a scam. Legal, worthy, call it what you want, but a scam it is. And personally, I don't like to be scammed. It's the only field in which I have a long memory.

There is another good tool to check if it is an “ADOO scam or not”: its proponents quash any comparison with places and times in which non adherence to their faith did not turn out in a lightning out of the sky burning the unbelievers, on the contrary outcome was better than the one they proposed. There are many examples, but in recent Italy history the best one has been on COVID, and it hit home in the family.

From the start, Sweden did not enforce the same stifling and prudent attitude other European countries used, and especially Italy, which was a close second to China in being oppressive to doubters. So, when at the start Sweden had high mortality in older people, newsrooms and politicians in my country couldn't name any other country. It was as if they were IKEA salesmen. But, at the time my daughter was studying there. So when Sweden was proven right and minister Speranza wrong, Sweden fell off the radar screen so hard that to know it was still there I had to phone my daughter.

And more often than not I could not reach her. She's a bright student and a socialite so finding a 15 minute slot for the old man between weekends in the countryside and her studies was too much hassle. Email it was then. And seeing the psychological difference between my country behind bars, both physically and emotionally, and her freedom, was something I still cherish.